Dataset: titanic
Round ID: 84
Prompt used:
Predict treatment outcome using these decision rules:
1. Histogen_Complex Delta:
- FAILURE if:
a) Treatment_Months > 90 AND TcQ_mass < 9000
b) Treatment_Months < 60 AND TcQ_mass > 7500
c) Genetic_Class_B_Matches > 1 AND Treatment_Months > 120
2. Histogen_Complex Beta:
- SUCCESS more likely if:
a) TcQ_mass > 40000
b) Genetic_Class_A_Matches > 1
c) Treatment_Months between 100-150
3. Histogen_Complex Omicron:
- FAILURE more likely if:
a) Treatment_Months > 150
b) TcQ_mass > 12000
4. Additional Considerations:
- Higher number of genetic matches suggests better treatment resilience
- Cohort (Melbourne/Delhi) may modify baseline predictions
- Sex can be a secondary modifier of outcome probability
Evaluation Steps:
1. Identify Histogen_Complex
2. Apply complex-specific rules
3. Check genetic match and treatment duration
4. Consider TcQ_mass thresholds
5. Make final prediction with nuanced confidence
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 14 14
Actual Success 5 18
Accuracy: 0.627
Precision: 0.737
Recall: 0.500
F1 Score: 0.596
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 63.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 7250.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 84.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 13000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 7879.2
Cohort: Lisbon
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 52000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Round ID: 342
Prompt used:
Use the following rules to classify the data entries as 'Failure' or 'Success':
1. If 'Treatment_Months' > 100 and 'TcQ_mass' < 10,000, classify as 'Failure'.
2. If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Omicron' and 'TcQ_mass' < 20,000, classify as 'Failure'.
3. If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' + 'Genetic_Class_B_Matches' >= 4 and 'TcQ_mass' > 50,000, classify as 'Success'.
4. For entities in Cohort 'Delhi' with 'Treatment_Months' > 150 and 'TcQ_mass' < 15,000, classify as 'Failure'.
5. For 'Histogen_Complex' 'Beta' or 'Delta' and 'TcQ_mass' > 70,000, classify as 'Success' unless 'Treatment_Months' < 10.
6. If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Beta', 'TcQ_mass' > 200,000, and 'Treatment_Months' < 100, classify as 'Failure'.
7. If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta' and 'TcQ_mass' < 8,000, classify as 'Failure'.
Classify based on these rules, and in cases not aligned to any rule above, use 'Failure' as the default classification.
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 27 1
Actual Success 19 4
Accuracy: 0.608
Precision: 0.587
Recall: 0.964
F1 Score: 0.730
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 84.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 13000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 132.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 3
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 90000.0
Cohort: Lisbon
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 42.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 30070.8
Cohort: Delhi
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 117.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 2
TcQ_mass: 79650.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Round ID: 140
Prompt used:
Based on the analysis of the dataset, please follow these explicit and specific rules to predict the outcome:
1. **Treatment Months Rule:**
- If 'Treatment_Months' is less than 10, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is between 10 and 65:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Omega' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Omicron' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 1 or less, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure' regardless of 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches'.
- Otherwise, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is between 66 and 89:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is less than 2, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is 90 or more:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta' and 'TcQ_mass' is below 30000, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Cohort' is 'Melbourne', predict 'Failure' unless 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000 and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 3.
- For 'Cohort: Lisbon', predict 'Failure' if 'Treatment_Months' is greater than 150 with no other criteria met.
- Predict 'Success' only if 'TcQ_mass' is below 15000 or if 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is above 2.
2. **TcQ_mass Criteria:**
- If 'TcQ_mass' is below 16000 and 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure'.
- If 'TcQ_mass' is between 16000 and 30000 and 'Treatment_Months' is over 80, predict 'Success' only if 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2.
- If 'TcQ_mass' is 30000 or more and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
3. **Genetic Class Match Rule:**
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 5 or more, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is equal to 1 or the total with 'Genetic_Class_B_Matches' is less than 3, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is between 2 and 4 and 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta', predict 'Success' only if 'TcQ_mass' is above 20000.
4. **Cohort Influence:**
- For 'Cohort: Melbourne', predict 'Success' if 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000 and 'Treatment_Months' is below 150; otherwise, predict 'Failure'.
- For 'Cohort: Delhi', predict 'Failure' if 'Treatment_Months' exceeds 105 and 'TcQ_mass' is below 20000 regardless of matches.
- For 'Cohort: Lisbon', predict 'Success' only if 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 2 or more and 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000.
5. **New Enhanced Rule About Histogen Complex:**
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Beta' and 'TcQ_mass' is above 50000, predict 'Success' without additional conditions.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Beta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 3 or more, predict 'Success' to reduce false negatives from previously caught errors.
6. **Fallback Condition:**
- If no other rules apply, predict 'Failure' to minimize false positives.
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 24 4
Actual Success 12 11
Accuracy: 0.686
Precision: 0.667
Recall: 0.857
F1 Score: 0.750
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 84.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 56495.8
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 138.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 61175.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 7879.2
Cohort: Lisbon
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 105.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 52000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
| Predicted + | Predicted - | |
|---|---|---|
| Actual + | 24 | 4 |
| Actual - | 12 | 11 |
Accuracy 0.686, Precision 0.667, Recall 0.857, F1 0.750