Dataset: titanic
Round ID: 84
Prompt used:
Predict treatment outcome using these decision rules:
1. Histogen_Complex Delta:
- FAILURE if:
a) Treatment_Months > 90 AND TcQ_mass < 9000
b) Treatment_Months < 60 AND TcQ_mass > 7500
c) Genetic_Class_B_Matches > 1 AND Treatment_Months > 120
2. Histogen_Complex Beta:
- SUCCESS more likely if:
a) TcQ_mass > 40000
b) Genetic_Class_A_Matches > 1
c) Treatment_Months between 100-150
3. Histogen_Complex Omicron:
- FAILURE more likely if:
a) Treatment_Months > 150
b) TcQ_mass > 12000
4. Additional Considerations:
- Higher number of genetic matches suggests better treatment resilience
- Cohort (Melbourne/Delhi) may modify baseline predictions
- Sex can be a secondary modifier of outcome probability
Evaluation Steps:
1. Identify Histogen_Complex
2. Apply complex-specific rules
3. Check genetic match and treatment duration
4. Consider TcQ_mass thresholds
5. Make final prediction with nuanced confidence
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 14 14
Actual Success 5 18
Accuracy: 0.627
Precision: 0.737
Recall: 0.500
F1 Score: 0.596
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 93.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 7775.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 75.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 3
TcQ_mass: 41579.2
Cohort: Delhi
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 135.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 8050.000000000001
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 52000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Round ID: 89
Prompt used:
Use the following comprehensive decision rules to predict success or failure:
1. Complex-Specific Prediction Framework:
Delta Complex Failure Criteria:
- Failure More Likely If:
* TcQ_mass between 8000 and 16000
* Treatment_Months < 30 or > 90
* Genetic_Class_A_Matches > 1
* Additional penalty if Cohort is Delhi or Melbourne
Omicron Complex Failure Criteria:
- Failure More Likely If:
* TcQ_mass between 10000 and 25000
* For Females: Genetic_Class_B_Matches > 1
* For Males: Genetic_Class_B_Matches > 2
* Treatment_Months outside 60-120 range
Beta Complex Success Criteria:
- Success More Likely If:
* TcQ_mass > 40000
* Males: Treatment_Months > 90
* Females: Treatment_Months > 120
* Bonus for higher Genetic_Class_Matches
2. Advanced Scoring Mechanism:
- Calculate a cumulative score considering:
* Weighted Genetic_Class_Matches (A and B)
* TcQ_mass relative to complex-specific ranges
* Treatment duration normalized by sex
* Cohort adjustment factor
3. Final Prediction:
- Aggregate scores across criteria
- Apply probabilistic threshold for Success/Failure
- Consider marginal cases with nuanced scoring
Make a binary prediction: Success or Failure, based on these comprehensive, context-aware rules.
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 24 4
Actual Success 15 8
Accuracy: 0.627
Precision: 0.615
Recall: 0.857
F1 Score: 0.716
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 84.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 13000.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 138.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 61175.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 2.4899999999999998
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 2
TcQ_mass: 18750.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 111.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 2
TcQ_mass: 52554.200000000004
Cohort: Melbourne
Round ID: 140
Prompt used:
Based on the analysis of the dataset, please follow these explicit and specific rules to predict the outcome:
1. **Treatment Months Rule:**
- If 'Treatment_Months' is less than 10, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is between 10 and 65:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Omega' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Omicron' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 1 or less, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure' regardless of 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches'.
- Otherwise, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is between 66 and 89:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is less than 2, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Treatment_Months' is 90 or more:
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta' and 'TcQ_mass' is below 30000, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Cohort' is 'Melbourne', predict 'Failure' unless 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000 and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 3.
- For 'Cohort: Lisbon', predict 'Failure' if 'Treatment_Months' is greater than 150 with no other criteria met.
- Predict 'Success' only if 'TcQ_mass' is below 15000 or if 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is above 2.
2. **TcQ_mass Criteria:**
- If 'TcQ_mass' is below 16000 and 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Delta', predict 'Failure'.
- If 'TcQ_mass' is between 16000 and 30000 and 'Treatment_Months' is over 80, predict 'Success' only if 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2.
- If 'TcQ_mass' is 30000 or more and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is at least 2, predict 'Success'.
3. **Genetic Class Match Rule:**
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 5 or more, predict 'Success'.
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is equal to 1 or the total with 'Genetic_Class_B_Matches' is less than 3, predict 'Failure'.
- If 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is between 2 and 4 and 'Histogen_Complex' is not 'Delta', predict 'Success' only if 'TcQ_mass' is above 20000.
4. **Cohort Influence:**
- For 'Cohort: Melbourne', predict 'Success' if 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000 and 'Treatment_Months' is below 150; otherwise, predict 'Failure'.
- For 'Cohort: Delhi', predict 'Failure' if 'Treatment_Months' exceeds 105 and 'TcQ_mass' is below 20000 regardless of matches.
- For 'Cohort: Lisbon', predict 'Success' only if 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 2 or more and 'TcQ_mass' is above 30000.
5. **New Enhanced Rule About Histogen Complex:**
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Beta' and 'TcQ_mass' is above 50000, predict 'Success' without additional conditions.
- If 'Histogen_Complex' is 'Beta' and 'Genetic_Class_A_Matches' is 3 or more, predict 'Success' to reduce false negatives from previously caught errors.
6. **Fallback Condition:**
- If no other rules apply, predict 'Failure' to minimize false positives.
Confusion Matrix:
Predicted Failure Predicted Success
Actual Failure 24 4
Actual Success 12 11
Accuracy: 0.686
Precision: 0.667
Recall: 0.857
F1 Score: 0.750
Examples for Correctly predicted Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Delta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 24150.0
Cohort: Lisbon
Examples for Falsely predicted Success when it should have been Failure: (Correct answer: Failure, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: female
Treatment_Months: 89.09735294117647
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 221779.2
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Falsely predicted Failure when it should have been Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Failure)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Omicron
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 150.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 1
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 1
TcQ_mass: 10500.0
Cohort: Melbourne
Examples for Correctly predicted Success: (Correct answer: Success, What the previous set of rules predicted: Success)
Entity Data:
Histogen_Complex: Beta
Sex: male
Treatment_Months: 117.0
Genetic_Class_A_Matches: 2
Genetic_Class_B_Matches: 2
TcQ_mass: 79650.0
Cohort: Melbourne
| Predicted + | Predicted - | |
|---|---|---|
| Actual + | 24 | 4 |
| Actual - | 13 | 10 |
Accuracy 0.667, Precision 0.649, Recall 0.857, F1 0.738