Ensemble

Dataset: timetravel_insurance

Models

Model Narratives

openaio1

Round ID: 278
Prompt used:
	You are given two numeric values for an entity: “TimelineDeviation” (T) and “ParadoxCount” (P). Using the rules below in the exact order, decide whether to label the entity as “Approved” or “Denied.” Your output should be only the word “Approved” or “Denied.”
	
	Rules:
	
	1) If T < 8:
	   a) If P ≥ 8, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Even with very low timelines, an extremely high paradox count can justify approval.)
	
	2) Else if 8 ≤ T < 10:
	   a) If P ≥ 6, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Slightly raised the paradox threshold in this range to reduce false approvals.)
	
	3) Else if T > 16:
	   a) If P < 2, label “Denied.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Approved.”
	   (Rationale: We still deny extremely high T with too few paradoxes, but approve otherwise.)
	
	4) Else if 10 ≤ T < 12:
	   a) If P ≥ 4.5, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Maintains a proven threshold in the 10–12 range.)
	
	5) Else if 12 ≤ T < 13:
	   a) If P ≥ 8, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Extremely high paradox counts in this narrow range can lead to paradoxical instability, so we deny.)
	   b) Else if P ≥ 4, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: This fixes previous false denials when P was around 6–7.)
	   c) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: We continue to deny lower paradox counts here.)
	
	6) Else if 13 ≤ T ≤ 16:
	   a) If T ≥ 15 AND P < 3, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Very high T near 15 with too few paradoxes is still denied.)
	   b) Else if P ≥ 8, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: Extremely large paradox count is approved in this range.)
	   c) Else if P ≥ 6, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Moderate paradox counts at higher T caused false positives previously, so we deny these.)
	   d) Otherwise, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: Everything else in 13–16 is generally approved unless it meets the exceptions above.)
	
	Remember: Apply these rules in order and output only “Approved” or “Denied.”

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    7                    2
Actual Denied                      2                    9

Accuracy: 0.800
Precision: 0.778
Recall: 0.778
F1 Score: 0.778

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 11.653055
	ParadoxCount: 6.0099745


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 11.072363
	ParadoxCount: 3.584661


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.459619
	ParadoxCount: 6.900848


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 10.1948805
	ParadoxCount: 3.5392668


opus4010

Round ID: 516
Prompt used:
	You are evaluating temporal anomaly reports for approval or denial. Apply the following rules in order:
	
	1. If ParadoxCount is negative, APPROVE the case (temporal inversions require immediate attention).
	
	2. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 7.7, APPROVE the case (very high paradox counts always require attention).
	
	3. If TimelineDeviation is greater than 16 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 2, APPROVE the case.
	
	4. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 14 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 2.5, APPROVE the case.
	
	5. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 13 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 3.3, APPROVE the case.
	
	6. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 12.5 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 3.8, APPROVE the case.
	
	7. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 7 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 3.8 AND ParadoxCount is less than 4.0, APPROVE the case.
	
	8. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 10 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 3.5 AND ParadoxCount is less than 3.8, APPROVE the case.
	
	9. If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 13 AND ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 4.0 AND ParadoxCount is less than 4.5, APPROVE the case.
	
	10. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 6.7 AND less than 7.7:
	    - If TimelineDeviation is greater than 8, APPROVE
	    - Otherwise, DENY
	
	11. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 6.1 AND less than 6.7:
	    - If TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 9 AND TimelineDeviation is less than 13, APPROVE
	    - Otherwise, DENY
	
	12. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 5.5 AND less than 6.1:
	    - If TimelineDeviation is greater than 10 AND TimelineDeviation is less than 16, APPROVE
	    - Otherwise, DENY
	
	13. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 4.5 AND less than 5.5:
	    - If TimelineDeviation is greater than 10, APPROVE
	    - Otherwise, DENY
	
	14. If ParadoxCount is greater than or equal to 3.4 AND less than 3.7 AND TimelineDeviation is greater than or equal to 14, APPROVE the case.
	
	15. If ParadoxCount is less than 3.5, DENY the case.
	
	16. For any remaining cases not covered above, DENY the case.
	
	Output only "Approved" or "Denied" based on these rules.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    8                    1
Actual Denied                      3                    8

Accuracy: 0.800
Precision: 0.727
Recall: 0.889
F1 Score: 0.800

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.241727
	ParadoxCount: 6.9502397


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 14.890128
	ParadoxCount: 6.380288


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 13.023456
	ParadoxCount: 6.9185414


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 11.297589
	ParadoxCount: 3.1243498


opus4010

Round ID: 534
Prompt used:
	You are evaluating time travel permit applications based on two risk metrics:
	- TimelineDeviation: Measures how much the proposed travel could alter the timeline
	- ParadoxCount: Indicates the number of potential paradoxes that could be created
	
	APPROVAL RULES:
	An application should be APPROVED if ANY of these conditions are met:
	1. TimelineDeviation >= 20.0
	2. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.2
	3. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	4. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5
	5. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.8
	6. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.8
	7. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.8 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	8. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.2
	9. TimelineDeviation >= 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 5.9 AND ParadoxCount < 7.0
	10. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.2
	11. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.3
	12. TimelineDeviation >= 8.5 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 5.0 AND ParadoxCount < 5.9
	13. TimelineDeviation >= 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.0
	14. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 4.3
	15. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.5
	16. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.0 AND ParadoxCount < 2.0
	17. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.4 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	18. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	19. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.5 AND ParadoxCount < 3.6
	20. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.1 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	21. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 9.3
	22. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3
	23. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	24. ParadoxCount < 0
	25. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.9 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	26. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5 AND ParadoxCount < 7.2
	27. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.1 AND ParadoxCount < 2.2
	28. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.1 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	29. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.7 AND ParadoxCount < 7.2
	30. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.0 AND ParadoxCount < 7.8
	31. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.0
	32. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.5 AND ParadoxCount < 3.3
	33. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3 AND ParadoxCount < 3.4
	34. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 10.0
	35. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.2 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	36. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.0 AND ParadoxCount < 9.3
	37. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.7
	38. TimelineDeviation >= 10.9 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.49 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	39. TimelineDeviation >= 12.9 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.17 AND ParadoxCount < 6.18
	40. TimelineDeviation >= 13.8 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.9 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.32 AND ParadoxCount < 3.33
	41. TimelineDeviation >= 10.1 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.2 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.56 AND ParadoxCount < 3.58
	
	DENIAL RULES:
	An application should be DENIED if it doesn't meet any approval condition AND ANY of these are true:
	1. TimelineDeviation < 7.0
	2. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.3
	3. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.4
	4. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 4.0
	5. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount < 2.1
	6. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.0 AND ParadoxCount < 4.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 0
	7. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.6 AND ParadoxCount < 4.8
	8. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	9. TimelineDeviation >= 8.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.3 AND ParadoxCount < 5.0
	10. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.8 AND ParadoxCount < 8.5
	11. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 17.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	12. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	13. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	14. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.2 AND ParadoxCount < 2.5
	15. TimelineDeviation >= 8.4 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.3 AND ParadoxCount < 4.4
	16. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.0 AND ParadoxCount < 4.5
	17. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5 AND ParadoxCount < 8.0
	18. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.3 AND ParadoxCount < 6.7
	19. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.13 AND ParadoxCount < 2.15
	20. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 17.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.04
	21. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.35 AND ParadoxCount < 3.36
	22. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.95 AND ParadoxCount < 7.96
	23. TimelineDeviation >= 12.2 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.3 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.37 AND ParadoxCount < 6.38
	24. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.09 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	25. TimelineDeviation >= 14.7 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.03 AND ParadoxCount < 4.04
	26. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.1 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.88 AND ParadoxCount < 7.89
	27. TimelineDeviation >= 14.3 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.4 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.03
	28. TimelineDeviation >= 16.7 AND TimelineDeviation < 16.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.04
	
	Respond with exactly one word: "Approved" or "Denied"

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    5                    4
Actual Denied                      2                    9

Accuracy: 0.700
Precision: 0.714
Recall: 0.556
F1 Score: 0.625

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 11.653055
	ParadoxCount: 6.0099745


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.241727
	ParadoxCount: 6.9502397


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 10.1948805
	ParadoxCount: 3.5392668


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.348428
	ParadoxCount: 1.573731


Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Predicted +Predicted -
Actual +72
Actual -29

Accuracy 0.800, Precision 0.778, Recall 0.778, F1 0.778