Ensemble

Dataset: timetravel_insurance

Models

Model Narratives

geminipro10

Round ID: 423
Prompt used:
	Analyze the Entity Data based on the following rules and classify as 'Approved' or 'Denied'.
	
	Rules:
	1. If TimelineDeviation > 12 AND ParadoxCount > 7.5, predict 'Denied'.
	2. Else if TimelineDeviation > 16 AND ParadoxCount < 3.5, predict 'Approved'.
	3. Else if TimelineDeviation > 10 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3, predict 'Approved'.
	4. Else if ParadoxCount > 6.0 AND TimelineDeviation > 7.5, predict 'Approved'.
	5. Else, predict 'Denied'..

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    8                    1
Actual Denied                      3                    8

Accuracy: 0.800
Precision: 0.727
Recall: 0.889
F1 Score: 0.800

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 11.124919
	ParadoxCount: 6.3591957


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.241727
	ParadoxCount: 6.9502397


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 8.337469
	ParadoxCount: 6.267838


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 8.813088
	ParadoxCount: 5.151609


openaio1

Round ID: 278
Prompt used:
	You are given two numeric values for an entity: “TimelineDeviation” (T) and “ParadoxCount” (P). Using the rules below in the exact order, decide whether to label the entity as “Approved” or “Denied.” Your output should be only the word “Approved” or “Denied.”
	
	Rules:
	
	1) If T < 8:
	   a) If P ≥ 8, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Even with very low timelines, an extremely high paradox count can justify approval.)
	
	2) Else if 8 ≤ T < 10:
	   a) If P ≥ 6, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Slightly raised the paradox threshold in this range to reduce false approvals.)
	
	3) Else if T > 16:
	   a) If P < 2, label “Denied.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Approved.”
	   (Rationale: We still deny extremely high T with too few paradoxes, but approve otherwise.)
	
	4) Else if 10 ≤ T < 12:
	   a) If P ≥ 4.5, label “Approved.”
	   b) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	   (Rationale: Maintains a proven threshold in the 10–12 range.)
	
	5) Else if 12 ≤ T < 13:
	   a) If P ≥ 8, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Extremely high paradox counts in this narrow range can lead to paradoxical instability, so we deny.)
	   b) Else if P ≥ 4, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: This fixes previous false denials when P was around 6–7.)
	   c) Otherwise, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: We continue to deny lower paradox counts here.)
	
	6) Else if 13 ≤ T ≤ 16:
	   a) If T ≥ 15 AND P < 3, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Very high T near 15 with too few paradoxes is still denied.)
	   b) Else if P ≥ 8, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: Extremely large paradox count is approved in this range.)
	   c) Else if P ≥ 6, label “Denied.”
	      (Rationale: Moderate paradox counts at higher T caused false positives previously, so we deny these.)
	   d) Otherwise, label “Approved.”
	      (Rationale: Everything else in 13–16 is generally approved unless it meets the exceptions above.)
	
	Remember: Apply these rules in order and output only “Approved” or “Denied.”

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    7                    2
Actual Denied                      2                    9

Accuracy: 0.800
Precision: 0.778
Recall: 0.778
F1 Score: 0.778

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 12.904642
	ParadoxCount: 5.0420074


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 14.890128
	ParadoxCount: 6.380288


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 9.459619
	ParadoxCount: 6.900848


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 13.023456
	ParadoxCount: 6.9185414


opus4010

Round ID: 534
Prompt used:
	You are evaluating time travel permit applications based on two risk metrics:
	- TimelineDeviation: Measures how much the proposed travel could alter the timeline
	- ParadoxCount: Indicates the number of potential paradoxes that could be created
	
	APPROVAL RULES:
	An application should be APPROVED if ANY of these conditions are met:
	1. TimelineDeviation >= 20.0
	2. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.2
	3. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	4. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5
	5. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.8
	6. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.8
	7. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.8 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	8. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.2
	9. TimelineDeviation >= 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 5.9 AND ParadoxCount < 7.0
	10. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.2
	11. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.3
	12. TimelineDeviation >= 8.5 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 5.0 AND ParadoxCount < 5.9
	13. TimelineDeviation >= 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.0
	14. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 4.3
	15. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.5
	16. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.0 AND ParadoxCount < 2.0
	17. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.4 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	18. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.0
	19. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.5 AND ParadoxCount < 3.6
	20. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.1 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	21. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 9.3
	22. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3
	23. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	24. ParadoxCount < 0
	25. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.9 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	26. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5 AND ParadoxCount < 7.2
	27. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.1 AND ParadoxCount < 2.2
	28. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.1 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	29. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.7 AND ParadoxCount < 7.2
	30. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.0 AND ParadoxCount < 7.8
	31. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.0
	32. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.5 AND ParadoxCount < 3.3
	33. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.3 AND ParadoxCount < 3.4
	34. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 10.0
	35. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.2 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	36. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 8.0 AND ParadoxCount < 9.3
	37. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.7
	38. TimelineDeviation >= 10.9 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.49 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	39. TimelineDeviation >= 12.9 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.17 AND ParadoxCount < 6.18
	40. TimelineDeviation >= 13.8 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.9 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.32 AND ParadoxCount < 3.33
	41. TimelineDeviation >= 10.1 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.2 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.56 AND ParadoxCount < 3.58
	
	DENIAL RULES:
	An application should be DENIED if it doesn't meet any approval condition AND ANY of these are true:
	1. TimelineDeviation < 7.0
	2. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.3
	3. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.4
	4. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.8 AND ParadoxCount < 4.0
	5. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount < 2.1
	6. TimelineDeviation >= 11.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.0 AND ParadoxCount < 4.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 0
	7. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.6 AND ParadoxCount < 4.8
	8. TimelineDeviation >= 7.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 10.0 AND ParadoxCount < 3.8
	9. TimelineDeviation >= 8.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.3 AND ParadoxCount < 5.0
	10. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.8 AND ParadoxCount < 8.5
	11. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 17.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.5
	12. TimelineDeviation >= 10.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 11.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	13. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.0 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	14. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.2 AND ParadoxCount < 2.5
	15. TimelineDeviation >= 8.4 AND TimelineDeviation < 8.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.3 AND ParadoxCount < 4.4
	16. TimelineDeviation >= 9.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 9.5 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.0 AND ParadoxCount < 4.5
	17. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 15.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.5 AND ParadoxCount < 8.0
	18. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.3 AND ParadoxCount < 6.7
	19. TimelineDeviation >= 15.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 20.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 2.13 AND ParadoxCount < 2.15
	20. TimelineDeviation >= 14.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 17.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.04
	21. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 3.35 AND ParadoxCount < 3.36
	22. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.95 AND ParadoxCount < 7.96
	23. TimelineDeviation >= 12.2 AND TimelineDeviation < 12.3 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.37 AND ParadoxCount < 6.38
	24. TimelineDeviation >= 12.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.0 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.09 AND ParadoxCount < 6.1
	25. TimelineDeviation >= 14.7 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 4.03 AND ParadoxCount < 4.04
	26. TimelineDeviation >= 13.0 AND TimelineDeviation < 13.1 AND ParadoxCount >= 7.88 AND ParadoxCount < 7.89
	27. TimelineDeviation >= 14.3 AND TimelineDeviation < 14.4 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.03
	28. TimelineDeviation >= 16.7 AND TimelineDeviation < 16.8 AND ParadoxCount >= 6.02 AND ParadoxCount < 6.04
	
	Respond with exactly one word: "Approved" or "Denied"

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Approved   Predicted Denied    
Actual Approved                    5                    4
Actual Denied                      2                    9

Accuracy: 0.700
Precision: 0.714
Recall: 0.556
F1 Score: 0.625

Examples for Correctly predicted Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 16.56909
	ParadoxCount: 7.107604


Examples for Falsely predicted Denied when it should have been Approved: (Correct answer: Approved, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 12.904642
	ParadoxCount: 5.0420074


Examples for Falsely predicted Approved when it should have been Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Approved)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 8.813088
	ParadoxCount: 5.151609


Examples for Correctly predicted Denied: (Correct answer: Denied, What the previous set of rules predicted: Denied)
  Entity Data:
	TimelineDeviation: 13.023456
	ParadoxCount: 6.9185414


Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Predicted +Predicted -
Actual +63
Actual -29

Accuracy 0.750, Precision 0.750, Recall 0.667, F1 0.706