Ensemble

Dataset: southgermancredit

Models

• openailong
• openai35
• random

Model Narratives

openailong

Round ID: 215
Prompt used:
	Based on the following criteria, classify the reef as either 'Healthy' or 'Stressed':
	
	1. **Current Flow Quality:** 
	   - Excellent: +2 points
	   - Good: +1 point
	   - Fair: -1 point
	   - Poor: -2 points
	
	2. **Observation Duration:** 
	   - > 6 years: +2 points
	   - 4-6 years: +1 point
	   - 1-4 years: 0 points
	   - < 1 year: -1 point
	
	3. **Reef Integrity Score:** 
	   - Excellent: +3 points
	   - Good: +2 points
	   - Moderate: +1 point
	   - Poor or Very Poor: -1 point
	
	4. **Pollution Level:** 
	   - Low: +2 points
	   - Moderate: +1 point
	   - High: -2 points
	   - Critical: -3 points
	
	5. **Predator Activity Level:** 
	   - Very Low or None: +2 points
	   - Low: +1 point
	   - Moderate Low: 0 points
	   - Moderate: -1 point
	   - High or Severe: -2 points
	
	6. **Biodiversity Index:** 
	   - High: +2 points
	   - Medium: +1 point
	   - Low: -1 point
	
	7. **Nearby Healthy Reef Presence:** 
	   - Adjacent or Present: +2 points
	   - Absent: -2 points
	
	8. **Previous Stress Incidents:** 
	   - None: +2 points
	   - Minor: +1 point
	   - Moderate or Major: -3 points
	
	Calculate the total score. If the score is 6 or higher, classify the reef as 'Healthy.' If the score is less than 6, classify it as 'Stressed.'

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    43                   45
Actual Stressed                    7                   18

Accuracy: 0.540
Precision: 0.860
Recall: 0.489
F1 Score: 0.623

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 37
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 215.2
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 11
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Occasional
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Nearby
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 4-6 years
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 30
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: No


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Good
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 341.9
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Occasional
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 4-6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 40
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Good
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 182.8
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 21
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: < 1 year
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 25
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Good
	PredatorActivityLevel: Severe
	AcousticIntensity: 218.9
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Very High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 31
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes

openai35

Round ID: 349
Prompt used:
	Given the entity data for a reef observation, predict the reef status as Healthy or Stressed based on the following rule: If Observation Duration is less than or equal to 50, Predator Activity Level is Severe, Bleaching Events Per Year is Frequent, and Reef Integrity Score is Poor or Fair, predict Stressed. Otherwise, predict Healthy.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    88                    0
Actual Stressed                   25                    0

Accuracy: 0.779
Precision: 0.779
Recall: 1.000
F1 Score: 0.876

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 270.4
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 38
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Massive
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 142
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Severe
	AcousticIntensity: 1183.6
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Occasional
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 32
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes

random

Round ID: 88
Prompt used:
	Choose randomly

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    46                   42
Actual Stressed                   10                   15

Accuracy: 0.540
Precision: 0.821
Recall: 0.523
F1 Score: 0.639

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Catastrophic
	AcousticIntensity: 633.4
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 6
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Nearby
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 30
	DistantStressIndicators: None
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 72.1
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Very High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 43
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Massive
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 130.2
	AlgalCoverage: Sparse
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 35
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Massive
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Very Low
	AcousticIntensity: 1299.6
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 6
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 41
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Deep
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes

Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Accuracy 0.717, Precision 0.841, Recall 0.784, F1 0.812