Ensemble

Dataset: southgermancredit

Models

Model Narratives

anthropic3710

Round ID: 299
Prompt used:
	# Coral Reef Health Classification Rules
	
	Evaluate each coral reef using the following set of rules to determine if it is HEALTHY or STRESSED. Apply these rules sequentially and classify accordingly.
	
	## Rule 1: Current Flow and Integrity Assessment
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Very Poor", classify as STRESSED.
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Excellent" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good", classify as HEALTHY unless contradicted by Rule 6.
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" but ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent", evaluate other positive factors before classification (see Rule 5).
	
	## Rule 2: Pollution and Biodiversity Assessment
	- If PollutionLevel is "Critical" AND BiodiversityIndex is "Low", classify as STRESSED.
	- If BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High", consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	- If PollutionLevel is "Critical" or "High" but BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefAverageAge > 35, consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 3: Reef and Coral Age Evaluation
	- If CoralAgeEstimate ≤ 11 AND ReefAverageAge < 28, classify as STRESSED unless BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High".
	- If CoralAgeEstimate ≥ 16 AND ReefAverageAge > 35 AND BiodiversityIndex is not "Low", consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 4: Bleaching and Algal Coverage Assessment
	- If BleachingEventsPerYear is "Constant" AND AlgalCoverage is "Extensive" AND BiodiversityIndex is "Low" or "Medium", classify as STRESSED.
	- If BleachingEventsPerYear is "Constant" but BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good", this is not automatically indicative of stress (evaluate using Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 5: Positive Health Indicators
	If THREE OR MORE of the following conditions are met, classify as HEALTHY unless Rule 6 applies:
	- CurrentFlowQuality is "Excellent" or "Good"
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High"
	- AlgalCoverage is "Minimal" or "Sparse"
	- ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good"
	- PollutionLevel is "Low" or "Moderate"
	- ReefAverageAge > 35
	- CoralAgeEstimate > 15
	
	## Rule 6: Critical Stress Indicators
	If ANY THREE of the following conditions are met, classify as STRESSED regardless of other factors:
	- AcousticIntensity > 850
	- PollutionLevel is "Critical" AND BiodiversityIndex is not "High" or "Very High"
	- CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Very Poor" or "Poor"
	- BleachingEventsPerYear is "Frequent" AND AlgalCoverage is "Extensive"
	- CoralAgeEstimate < 10 AND ReefAverageAge < 25
	
	## Rule 7: Additional Health Indicators
	If a reef meets TWO of these conditions, classify as HEALTHY unless it meets Rule 6:
	- ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" AND any one other positive indicator from Rule 5
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefAverageAge > 35
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND AlgalCoverage is "Minimal"
	
	## Default Rule
	If no clear classification has been made from the above rules:
	- If TWO OR MORE of these key indicators (BiodiversityIndex, ReefIntegrityScore, CurrentFlowQuality, PollutionLevel) are positive, AND AcousticIntensity < 600, classify as HEALTHY.
	- If TWO OR MORE of these key indicators are negative, OR AcousticIntensity > 600 AND either PollutionLevel is "High"/"Critical" or CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor", classify as STRESSED.
	- In uncertain cases where there is a balanced mix of positive and negative indicators, prioritize BiodiversityIndex and ReefIntegrityScore in the final decision.
	
	When evaluating, apply rules in sequence but prioritize Rules 5 and 6 when their conditions are conclusively met.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    48                   40
Actual Stressed                   10                   15

Accuracy: 0.558
Precision: 0.828
Recall: 0.545
F1 Score: 0.658

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 115
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 361.5
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 31
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 25
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Very Low
	AcousticIntensity: 137.2
	AlgalCoverage: Moderate
	CoralAgeEstimate: 6
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Rare
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Moderate
	ReefAverageAge: 26
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Branching
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Good
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 182.8
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 21
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: < 1 year
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 25
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate High
	AcousticIntensity: 65.9
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 33
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


opus40

Round ID: 91
Prompt used:
	Predict whether a coral reef is "Healthy" or "Stressed" based on the following rules:
	
	**PREDICT STRESSED IF ANY OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET:**
	
	1. **Critical Integrity Rule**: ReefIntegrityScore is "Very Poor" OR "Poor"
	
	2. **Severe Predation Rule**: PredatorActivityLevel is "Severe" AND AlgalCoverage is "Extensive" OR "Heavy"
	
	3. **Poor Flow with High Acoustic Rule**: CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" AND AcousticIntensity > 600
	
	4. **Young Coral Under Constant Bleaching Rule**: CoralAgeEstimate < 15 AND BleachingEventsPerYear is "Constant" AND BiodiversityIndex is NOT "Very High" AND NOT "High"
	
	5. **Multiple Stress Indicators Rule**: Count how many of these are true:
	   - CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor"
	   - AlgalCoverage is "Extensive" 
	   - BiodiversityIndex is "Low" OR "Very Low"
	   - PollutionLevel is "High"
	   - PreviousStressIncidents is "Major" OR "Severe"
	   
	   If 3 or more are true, predict STRESSED
	
	6. **Extreme Algae with Low Diversity Rule**: AlgalCoverage is "Extensive" AND BiodiversityIndex is "Low" OR "Very Low"
	
	**OTHERWISE, PREDICT HEALTHY IF:**
	- None of the above stress conditions are met
	- OR if BiodiversityIndex is "Very High" AND ReefIntegrityScore is NOT "Very Poor" AND NOT "Poor"
	
	**DEFAULT**: If unclear, predict HEALTHY

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    80                    8
Actual Stressed                   16                    9

Accuracy: 0.788
Precision: 0.833
Recall: 0.909
F1 Score: 0.870

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 512.3
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 11
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Very High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 4-6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 50
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Deep
	PreviousStressIncidents: Moderate
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 151
	ReefIntegrityScore: Good
	PredatorActivityLevel: Severe
	AcousticIntensity: 670.1
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 41
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Deep
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: No
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 106
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 430.1
	AlgalCoverage: Moderate
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Rare
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 26
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 169
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Severe
	AcousticIntensity: 1596.5
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 11
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 61
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


sonnet4010

Round ID: 105
Prompt used:
	Classify coral reef health as either "Healthy" or "Stressed" based on the following rules:
	
	**CLASSIFY AS STRESSED if ANY of the following conditions are met:**
	
	1. **Critical Structural Damage**: If ReefIntegrityScore = "Very Poor", classify as Stressed
	
	2. **Critical Pollution with Poor Structure**: If PollutionLevel = "Critical" AND ReefIntegrityScore = "Poor", classify as Stressed
	
	3. **Extreme Acoustic Stress**: If AcousticIntensity ≥ 1200, classify as Stressed
	
	4. **Young Reef with High Acoustic Stress**: If ReefAverageAge ≤ 30 AND AcousticIntensity ≥ 700, classify as Stressed
	
	5. **Poor Flow + Short Observation**: If CurrentFlowQuality = "Poor" AND ObservationDuration ≤ 35 days, classify as Stressed
	
	6. **Young Reef with Multiple Stressors**: If ReefAverageAge ≤ 30 AND any TWO of the following are true:
	   - CurrentFlowQuality = "Poor" or "Fair"
	   - PollutionLevel = "High" or "Critical"
	   - BleachingEventsPerYear = "Constant"
	   - PredatorActivityLevel = "None"
	
	7. **Multiple Moderate Stressors**: If any THREE of the following are true:
	   - CurrentFlowQuality = "Poor" or "Fair"
	   - PollutionLevel = "High" or "Critical"
	   - ReefIntegrityScore = "Poor"
	   - PredatorActivityLevel = "High", "Severe", or "Extreme"
	   - BleachingEventsPerYear = "Frequent" or "Constant"
	
	8. **High Pollution with Poor Flow**: If PollutionLevel = "High" AND CurrentFlowQuality = "Poor" AND ReefAverageAge ≤ 35, classify as Stressed
	
	9. **Insufficient Observation with Stress Indicators**: If ObservationDuration ≤ 30 days AND any TWO of the following are true:
	   - CurrentFlowQuality = "Poor" or "Fair"
	   - PollutionLevel = "High" or "Critical"
	   - ReefIntegrityScore = "Poor" or "Very Poor"
	   - PredatorActivityLevel = "High", "Severe", or "Extreme"
	
	**CLASSIFY AS HEALTHY if:**
	- None of the above stress conditions are met
	- ReefIntegrityScore = "Excellent" AND CurrentFlowQuality = "Excellent" AND PollutionLevel = "Low"
	
	**DEFAULT CLASSIFICATION:**
	If none of the explicit stress conditions are met and the reef doesn't qualify for the excellent health criteria, classify as Healthy.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    64                   24
Actual Stressed                    7                   18

Accuracy: 0.726
Precision: 0.901
Recall: 0.727
F1 Score: 0.805

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Good
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 144.4
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 58
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 70
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 276.5
	AlgalCoverage: Heavy
	CoralAgeEstimate: 21
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 35
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: None
	AcousticIntensity: 155.0
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Moderate
	ReefAverageAge: 35
	DistantStressIndicators: None
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Good
	ObservationDuration: 34
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 135.7
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 11
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 37
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Predicted +Predicted -
Actual +7117
Actual -817

Accuracy 0.779, Precision 0.899, Recall 0.807, F1 0.850