Ensemble

Dataset: southgermancredit

Models

Model Narratives

anthropic3710

Round ID: 299
Prompt used:
	# Coral Reef Health Classification Rules
	
	Evaluate each coral reef using the following set of rules to determine if it is HEALTHY or STRESSED. Apply these rules sequentially and classify accordingly.
	
	## Rule 1: Current Flow and Integrity Assessment
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Very Poor", classify as STRESSED.
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Excellent" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good", classify as HEALTHY unless contradicted by Rule 6.
	- If CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" but ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent", evaluate other positive factors before classification (see Rule 5).
	
	## Rule 2: Pollution and Biodiversity Assessment
	- If PollutionLevel is "Critical" AND BiodiversityIndex is "Low", classify as STRESSED.
	- If BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High", consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	- If PollutionLevel is "Critical" or "High" but BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefAverageAge > 35, consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 3: Reef and Coral Age Evaluation
	- If CoralAgeEstimate ≤ 11 AND ReefAverageAge < 28, classify as STRESSED unless BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High".
	- If CoralAgeEstimate ≥ 16 AND ReefAverageAge > 35 AND BiodiversityIndex is not "Low", consider the reef POTENTIALLY HEALTHY (confirm with Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 4: Bleaching and Algal Coverage Assessment
	- If BleachingEventsPerYear is "Constant" AND AlgalCoverage is "Extensive" AND BiodiversityIndex is "Low" or "Medium", classify as STRESSED.
	- If BleachingEventsPerYear is "Constant" but BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good", this is not automatically indicative of stress (evaluate using Rules 5 and 6).
	
	## Rule 5: Positive Health Indicators
	If THREE OR MORE of the following conditions are met, classify as HEALTHY unless Rule 6 applies:
	- CurrentFlowQuality is "Excellent" or "Good"
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High"
	- AlgalCoverage is "Minimal" or "Sparse"
	- ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" or "Good"
	- PollutionLevel is "Low" or "Moderate"
	- ReefAverageAge > 35
	- CoralAgeEstimate > 15
	
	## Rule 6: Critical Stress Indicators
	If ANY THREE of the following conditions are met, classify as STRESSED regardless of other factors:
	- AcousticIntensity > 850
	- PollutionLevel is "Critical" AND BiodiversityIndex is not "High" or "Very High"
	- CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor" AND ReefIntegrityScore is "Very Poor" or "Poor"
	- BleachingEventsPerYear is "Frequent" AND AlgalCoverage is "Extensive"
	- CoralAgeEstimate < 10 AND ReefAverageAge < 25
	
	## Rule 7: Additional Health Indicators
	If a reef meets TWO of these conditions, classify as HEALTHY unless it meets Rule 6:
	- ReefIntegrityScore is "Excellent" AND any one other positive indicator from Rule 5
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND ReefAverageAge > 35
	- BiodiversityIndex is "High" or "Very High" AND AlgalCoverage is "Minimal"
	
	## Default Rule
	If no clear classification has been made from the above rules:
	- If TWO OR MORE of these key indicators (BiodiversityIndex, ReefIntegrityScore, CurrentFlowQuality, PollutionLevel) are positive, AND AcousticIntensity < 600, classify as HEALTHY.
	- If TWO OR MORE of these key indicators are negative, OR AcousticIntensity > 600 AND either PollutionLevel is "High"/"Critical" or CurrentFlowQuality is "Poor", classify as STRESSED.
	- In uncertain cases where there is a balanced mix of positive and negative indicators, prioritize BiodiversityIndex and ReefIntegrityScore in the final decision.
	
	When evaluating, apply rules in sequence but prioritize Rules 5 and 6 when their conditions are conclusively met.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    48                   40
Actual Stressed                   10                   15

Accuracy: 0.558
Precision: 0.828
Recall: 0.545
F1 Score: 0.658

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 359.3
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Rare
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: < 1 year
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 26
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Massive
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Good
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 144.4
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 58
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Good
	ObservationDuration: 34
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Moderate Low
	AcousticIntensity: 135.7
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 11
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 37
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 97
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 346.1
	AlgalCoverage: Sparse
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Occasional
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Nearby
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 24
	DistantStressIndicators: None
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


openaio3

Round ID: 306
Prompt used:
	You are given ONE reef‑survey record.  Decide whether the reef is "Healthy" or "Stressed" by following the steps below EXACTLY and DETERMINISTICALLY.  Output ONLY the single word Healthy or Stressed.
	
	STEP 0 – HEALTH OVERRIDE (apply first)
	If ALL of the following are true, immediately output Healthy:
	  • ReefIntegrityScore = Excellent
	  • PredatorActivityLevel is "None" or "Very Low"
	  • AcousticIntensity < 300
	  • BiodiversityIndex = High
	
	STEP 1 – STRESS OVERRIDES (apply next; if any match, output Stressed)
	A)  PollutionLevel is High or Critical AND InvasiveSpeciesDetected = Yes AND ReefIntegrityScore is Moderate, Poor or Very Poor
	B)  BleachingEventsPerYear = Constant AND AcousticIntensity < 500
	
	If neither override fired, continue to Step 2.
	
	STEP 2 – ASSIGN RISK POINTS
	(a) BleachingEventsPerYear
	      Rare = 0   Occasional = 1   Frequent = 2   Constant = 2
	(b) PollutionLevel
	      Low = 0   Moderate = 1   High = 3   Critical = 4
	(c) ReefIntegrityScore
	      Excellent = 0   Good = 1   Moderate = 2   Poor = 3   Very Poor = 4
	(d) PredatorActivityLevel   (treat "Moderate Low" as Moderate; treat "High", "Severe" or "Extreme" the same)
	      None / Very Low = 0   Moderate / Moderate Low = 1   High / Severe / Extreme = 1
	(e) InvasiveSpeciesDetected   Yes = 1   No = 0
	(f) AcousticIntensity (numeric)
	      > 900 = 2   500–900 = 1   < 500 = 0
	(g) DistantStressIndicators
	      Confirmed = 1   Possible or Absent = 0
	(h) PreviousStressIncidents
	      None / Minor = 0   Moderate = 1   Severe or worse = 2
	
	STEP 3 – CALCULATE TOTAL RISK
	Add all points from Step 2.
	
	STEP 4 – FINAL DECISION
	If TOTAL RISK ≥ 9  →  Stressed
	Otherwise            →  Healthy
	
	Do not add any explanations or extra words.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    37                   51
Actual Stressed                    6                   19

Accuracy: 0.496
Precision: 0.860
Recall: 0.420
F1 Score: 0.565

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 43
	ReefIntegrityScore: Excellent
	PredatorActivityLevel: None
	AcousticIntensity: 151.5
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: < 1 year
	PollutionLevel: Low
	ReefAverageAge: 41
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Massive
	SurveyorExperience: No
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Stressed when it should have been Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Excellent
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: None
	AcousticIntensity: 154.5
	AlgalCoverage: Heavy
	CoralAgeEstimate: 21
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 4-6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 37
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: No
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: None
	AcousticIntensity: 106.2
	AlgalCoverage: Extensive
	CoralAgeEstimate: 16
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Constant
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: 1-3 years
	PollutionLevel: Moderate
	ReefAverageAge: 36
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Correctly predicted Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Stressed)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Poor
	ObservationDuration: 79
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Low
	AcousticIntensity: 413.0
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 26
	DistantStressIndicators: None
	ReefDepthZone: Shallow
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: No
	RemoteSensorPresent: No
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


openai35

Round ID: 349
Prompt used:
	Given the entity data for a reef observation, predict the reef status as Healthy or Stressed based on the following rule: If Observation Duration is less than or equal to 50, Predator Activity Level is Severe, Bleaching Events Per Year is Frequent, and Reef Integrity Score is Poor or Fair, predict Stressed. Otherwise, predict Healthy.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Healthy    Predicted Stressed  
Actual Healthy                    88                    0
Actual Stressed                   25                    0

Accuracy: 0.779
Precision: 0.779
Recall: 1.000
F1 Score: 0.876

Examples for Correctly predicted Healthy: (Correct answer: Healthy, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 67
	ReefIntegrityScore: Very Poor
	PredatorActivityLevel: Very Low
	AcousticIntensity: 616.8
	AlgalCoverage: Sparse
	CoralAgeEstimate: 26
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Very High
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: High
	ReefAverageAge: 34
	DistantStressIndicators: None
	ReefDepthZone: Mid-depth
	PreviousStressIncidents: Minor
	CoralDominantType: Encrusting
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Examples for Falsely predicted Healthy when it should have been Stressed: (Correct answer: Stressed, What the previous set of rules predicted: Healthy)
  Entity Data:
	CurrentFlowQuality: Fair
	ObservationDuration: 61
	ReefIntegrityScore: Moderate
	PredatorActivityLevel: Very Low
	AcousticIntensity: 1299.6
	AlgalCoverage: Minimal
	CoralAgeEstimate: 6
	BleachingEventsPerYear: Frequent
	BiodiversityIndex: Medium
	NearbyHealthyReef: Absent
	ReefMonitoringDuration: > 6 years
	PollutionLevel: Critical
	ReefAverageAge: 41
	DistantStressIndicators: Confirmed
	ReefDepthZone: Deep
	PreviousStressIncidents: None
	CoralDominantType: Soft
	SurveyorExperience: Yes
	RemoteSensorPresent: Yes
	InvasiveSpeciesDetected: Yes


Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Predicted +Predicted -
Actual +5830
Actual -1213

Accuracy 0.628, Precision 0.829, Recall 0.659, F1 0.734