Ensemble

Dataset: potions

Models

• anthropic10
• openai
• openai35

Model Narratives

anthropic10

Round ID: 254
Prompt used:
	Classify an entity as Effective if BOTH of these conditions are true:
	1. The FizzIntensity is greater than 40
	2. The ColourShift is greater than 12
	
	If either condition is not met, classify the entity as Ineffective.
	
	Reasoning steps:
	- High FizzIntensity (> 40) suggests strong potential
	- Significant ColourShift (> 12) indicates meaningful change
	- Both conditions must be simultaneously true to be considered Effective

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Effective  Predicted Ineffective
Actual Effective                    4                    5
Actual Ineffective                    3                    8

Accuracy: 0.600
Precision: 0.571
Recall: 0.444
F1 Score: 0.500

Examples for Correctly predicted Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 42.903545
	ColourShift: 19.770008


Examples for Falsely predicted Ineffective when it should have been Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 47.042286
	ColourShift: 9.9699135


Examples for Falsely predicted Effective when it should have been Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 49.864723
	ColourShift: 16.120462


Examples for Correctly predicted Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 34.24991
	ColourShift: 10.365348

openai

Round ID: 347
Prompt used:
	To classify the outcomes of the dataset entities based on FizzIntensity and ColourShift, use the following rules:
	
	1. Predict 'Effective' if FizzIntensity is greater than or equal to 45; prioritize these entities for effective predictions.
	2. Predict 'Ineffective' if FizzIntensity is less than 35, regardless of ColourShift.
	3. For FizzIntensity between 35 and 45, consider:
	   - Predict 'Effective' if ColourShift is greater than or equal to 13 and less than or equal to 20.
	   - Predict 'Effective' if ColourShift is above 15 and FizzIntensity is closer to 45.
	   - Predict 'Ineffective' if ColourShift is below 10, emphasizing the low value as ineffective.
	4. If FizzIntensity is less than 40 and ColourShift is between 10 and 13, predict 'Ineffective'.
	
	These rules aim to decrease both false positives and false negatives in predictions by setting clear thresholds and decision criteria based on patterns from past data and adding considerations for borderline ColourShift values.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Effective  Predicted Ineffective
Actual Effective                    6                    3
Actual Ineffective                    5                    6

Accuracy: 0.600
Precision: 0.545
Recall: 0.667
F1 Score: 0.600

Examples for Correctly predicted Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 47.878643
	ColourShift: 10.863845


Examples for Falsely predicted Ineffective when it should have been Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 42.094933
	ColourShift: 12.042143


Examples for Falsely predicted Effective when it should have been Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 41.101128
	ColourShift: 15.34901


Examples for Correctly predicted Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 23.177788
	ColourShift: 25.461937

openai35

Round ID: 486
Prompt used:
	Prompt: If FizzIntensity is greater than 40, predict as Effective. If FizzIntensity is 40 or lower, predict as Ineffective.

Confusion Matrix:
                Predicted Effective  Predicted Ineffective
Actual Effective                    7                    2
Actual Ineffective                    3                    8

Accuracy: 0.750
Precision: 0.700
Recall: 0.778
F1 Score: 0.737

Examples for Correctly predicted Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 45.78967
	ColourShift: 12.371225


Examples for Falsely predicted Ineffective when it should have been Effective: (Correct answer: Effective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 37.055344
	ColourShift: 15.48838


Examples for Falsely predicted Effective when it should have been Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Effective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 49.864723
	ColourShift: 16.120462


Examples for Correctly predicted Ineffective: (Correct answer: Ineffective, What the previous set of rules predicted: Ineffective)
  Entity Data:
	FizzIntensity: 26.284357
	ColourShift: 21.189081

Ensemble Confusion Matrix

Accuracy 0.750, Precision 0.700, Recall 0.778, F1 0.737